Oilers Goalie Search #3: Darcy Kuemper
Why the recent Stanley Cup champion is the safest bet in the goalie free agent market
On Wednesday, Ken Holland held a media availability entering the draft where he spoke on a variety of topics, but perhaps most significantly said that the Oilers’ new starting goalie would very likely come from free agency. Meanwhile, the landscape for free agent goalies has dramatically shifted over the past 24 hours. Earlier in the week, Elliotte Friedman indicated on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast that it appeared to be trending that Darcy Kuemper would be staying with the Colorado Avalanche. He also reported that the Rangers were having a tough time finding someone to meet their price for Georgiev (who I’m not high on at all) due to the fact it was unlikely he would be qualified due to the Rangers lack of cap space. Additionally, Marc-Andre Fleury, who has shown zero interest in joining the Oilers organization, appeared to be on the move after reportedly turning down a one year extension from Minnesota.
Since then, Joe Sakic sent his 3rd and 5th round picks this year and a 3rd next year to New York in exchange for Georgiev, who will still need to be extended. Bob McKenzie also reported Thursday afternoon that the Wild were front runners to have Fleury for next year, in what would be a multi year deal with a structure similar to Mike Smith’s last contract. Matt Murray also blocked a trade to Buffalo, which would have filled one of the goalie vacancies around the league.
UPDATE: Minnesota have extended Fleury for 2 years at 3.5 million dollar cap hit.
Most importantly for the Oilers, Saskatoon native Darcy Kuemper went from likely staying put to becoming one of the strongest available goaltender options. The Oilers’, who had been reportedly focused on Jack Campbell on a deal around 5 years with a cap hit of 5 million, have apparently re-established interest, with Jim Matheson reporting Edmonton’s interest, speculating about a deal of roughly 4 years at 6 million per year. Adrian Dater from the Colorado also reported that Edmonton was the top favourite for Kuemper in the immediate aftermath of the trade.
This isn’t much of a surprise, as Ken Holland had interest last year while Kuemper was still with the Arizona Coyotes, but was out bid by the Avalanche, who ultimately dealt a first round pick, a conditional third round pick and highly regarded prospect Connor Timmins. Edmonton’s reported offer was defenceman Dimitri Samorukov and a second round pick.
Goalie Target #3: Darcy Kuemper
In my eyes, Darcy Kuemper is the only proven starting goalie on the open market available to the Oilers (Fleury would count, but Allan Walsh being his agent after the Lagesson saga and his previous unwillingness to waive for Edmonton previously make it extremely unlikely). Not only is he a proven starting goalie, but he has been one of the better goalies in the entire league since establishing himself as the undisputed starter in Arizona.
Although his 2020-2021 season marked a bit of regression, Kuemper’s 19-20 and 21-22 seasons were phenomenal. Below is a log of Kuemper’s stats by season per Evolving Hockey.
Kuemper has played 50 games in a season multiple times, posting consistently positive results through those seasons. This represents some consistency is results that the Oilers have been searching for since Cam Talbot was traded away.
The Oilers are also in a position where winning in the playoffs should be priority number one. Luckily for them, Kuemper has proven playoff pedigree. During the Playoff Bubble, Kuemper carried an outgunned Coyotes squad past the Predators in the opening qualifying round before falling to the Avalanche. More recently, Kuemper was Colorado’s primary option in goal on route to their Stanley Cup Championship, going 10-4 in 16 games, with Pavel Francouz playing in relief while Kuemper dealt with injuries.
Kuemper posted a .902 SV% in the playoffs and a negative goals saved above expected, pointing some to question Kuemper’s viability as a starter moving forward. After the freak eye injury that he suffered in Game 3 in the first round series against Nashville, there were a number of weird looking goals that went in through the rest of the playoffs. The injury was clearly bothering him as the playoffs wore on, as he had to leave Game 2 against Edmonton, and did not return until the Cup Final.
The other reason that affected the outlook of Kuemper’s stats through the playoffs was the fact that Colorado was able to smoother other teams to the degree they were able to. The Avalanche’s excellent defence were able to reduce the quantity of chances significantly, but even they were susceptible to the occasional breakdown leading to quality chances that one would expect to lead to goals without much blame being placed on the goalie. However, when there’s not the volume of other shots to make up the difference in the stats, “average” performances can look poor on the stat page. Combined that with the eye injury, Kuemper’s performance was better than would be evident on the surface.
The primary concern that I would have with Kuemper would be his injury history. He’s spent considerable time on injury reserve, with the majority of these injuries coming to his lower body. In fact, this past season was his first over 30 GP in the past 3 seasons.
Kuemper also presents a stylistic and personal fit with the Oilers. Growing up in Saskatoon, Kuemper would be familiar with the hockey landscape of Western Canada. The 32 year old goaltender would also be familiar with long time Oiler Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, having played with each other while with the Red Deer Rebels in the WHL. From a stylistic standpoint, Kuemper presents the technical based goaltending that should lend itself to overall consistency, as is demonstrated by his excellent and quality start % and good consistency percentile. Additionally, Kuemper’s excellent high and medium danger save percentages will allow him to make big saves behind the Oilers defence, while his slightly below average low danger save percentage should be able to be improved on with solid coaching.
The bottom line with Kuemper is that he a proven track record of strong performance over multiple seasons to the point that he can be a difference maker for his team. He is the only available option with multiple seasons of over 50 GP as a goalie. Especially when considering the reported asks for each player, Kuemper is a much safer and higher upside option than Jack Campbell. If the Oilers decide to go with a less proven option, Husso also presents upside but between the three primary options the Oilers should be considering in free agency, Kuemper would be my top target if they can make the money work.