Oilers Starting Goalie Search: In-House Options
The first article in a series looking at potential goalie acquisitions for the Oilers
Who they currently have
Mike Smith
The Oilers are in need of a long-term solution in goal. After spending the first month of the season on LTIR, 38-year old Mike Smith has posted his best start since 2011-12. There’s reason to believe the strong play isn’t just luck either, as Smith made tangible changes to his offseason training and had a full month to work with Oilers Goalie Coach Dustin Schwartz. This has resulted in significant improvements, that are being noticed around the league.
Earlier this season, I released a 2 part series outlining where I believe Smith struggles when his play suffers, and how these areas would have been improved due to the circumstances surrounding his start to the season (Part 1 and Part 2). Since then, Smith has been good overall, which is a significant improvement from last season, but the goals have continued to follow those patterns of tracking and rotation problems. Regardless of your personal opinion of Smith, as a 38-year old pending UFA with a questionable performance history, Smith is not a long-term solution in goal.
Mikko Koskinen
Peter Chiarelli’s final move was signing Koskinen to a 3-year contract with a 4.5M AAV, a move that controversial at the time and has not resulted in a consensus verdict since then. At this point, we know Koskinen cannot be a workhorse starter. In both the stints he has gotten as the clear-cut starter, Koskinen has struggled. After the Cam Talbot trade in 2018-19, Koskinen posted a 0.904 SV%, 0.93 GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and -8.56 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) in 23 GP and on 669 shots per NaturalStatTrick. With Smith shelved to start this season, the 6’7” Fin posted a 0.889 SV%, 0.71 GSAA, and -10.64 GSAx on 378 shots, playing an unsustainable 12 of 13 games in 25 days.
Despite his struggles being “the guy”, Koskinen has been effective when used in a platoon situation, specifically last year. He ranked 16th in GSAx using Evolving Wild’s expected goal model, which uses shot location and game state as inputs. However, the Oilers defense is notoriously leaky, giving up a significant number of rush chances and cross-seam passes. Clear SIght Analytics, which uses a proprietary model (detailed here) incorporates pre-shot puck and player movement, along with tips and screens to provide a more accurate look at the shot quality a goalie is facing. In CSA’s model, Koskinen was among the best in the league during the 2019-20 Season, as outlined below
Koskinen ranked 7th in overall goals GSAx, despite playing fewer games than other goalies in that range, which would allow others to accumulate more saves. With the 20th highest salary among goalies league-wide last year, it’s fair to say Koskinen covered his bet, showing that he can be successful in a tandem situation.
Koskinen is signed for one more season beyond the current one at his 4.5M AAV. There’s a proven track record that he can be an effective option in a tandem. However, recent decisions from Dave Tippett regarding his goalie deployment have made it clear Koskinen is currently regarded as the clear #2 behind Smith. At a minimum, the Oilers will need to find one more reliable goaltending option for next season, and if Koskinen has fallen so far out of favour that he is no longer in future plans, Ken Holland will have to make 2 moves to fill the crease.
Alex Stalock
The Oilers claimed Alex Stalock on March 4th. The veteran goalie who was formerly with the Minnesota Wild is currently quarantining before he will join the Oilers main group. I supported the move, as it provides a quality third option in case of injury, something the Oilers didn’t have early in the season. After Smith went down and goalies like Alex Nedeljkovic cleared waivers, the Oilers were left with Stuart Skinner and Dylan Wells behind Koskinen before they claimed Troy Grosenick, who didn’t see any game action before being reclaimed by the LA Kings.
While he provides a solid third option, there is little reason to believe that Stalock can offer an improvement on the 2 main goalies the Oilers currently have. After facing a heart condition in the offseason as reported by The Athletic’s Michael Russo, Stalock has had limited ice time since the NHL bubble. While Stalock’s raw stats may look promising, they came behind an extremely strong Wild defense. When factoring in the sheltered environment he played in, Stalock was among the worst goalies in the league last season.
The Oilers should realistically expect Stalock to provide a solid insurance policy against their other goalies in case of injury while being a quality teammate around the room. Asking anything more from the 33-year-old is not realistic at this point.
How they’ve done lately
The 2020-21 Season has presented many unique challenges, particularly for Canadian teams. The mandatory 14-day quarantine after crossing the border has limited trades and AHL recalls. It is entirely possible Holland would have made a move for a goalie already had the quarantine restriction not been in place, but the current situation makes the status quo much easier on the NHL roster. The acquisition of Alex Stalock does make the possible move of one goalie (likely Koskinen based on current sentiment) in a trade easier to handle.
Quite simply, Koskinen was not put in a position to succeed early in the year. He played too many games in a condensed window with minimal rest. The pure amount of games played wasn’t even the biggest factor according to Koskinen himself.
However, since Smith’s return, both goalies have been exceptional as shown below.
Dave Tippett himself has noted that the team is at its best when both goalies are playing. So far this season, this has shown, as both Smith and Koskinen have shown well when afforded the option of a quality backup behind them. If anything, the results show Koskinen may be getting the short end of the stick, and the start share should be more even. Whether the results can last will be dependent on deployment, as both goalies have shown that their play deteriorates when playing too much. However, if the play from the crease can hold, the Oilers should be able to win with that caliber of goaltending.
The current Smith-Koskinen tandem is far from ideal. Having said that, recent results combined with the challenges posed by the 2020-21 season suggest that riding out the season with the current tandem might be a feasible option. Ken Holland should be able to make a more effective move in the off-season for a goalie when he is armed with cap space and not restricted by a 14-day quarantine.
Next up in the Oilers Starting Goalie Search: Elvis Merzlikins